Global production of key agricultural commodities such as rice, maize, sorghum, and oilseeds is set to hit record highs, according to the latest outlook from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The FAO projects increased output across nearly all major food commodities, with the exception of sugar. Wheat production is expected to rise modestly, even as per capita food consumption declines.
A 13% boost in wheat yields across the EU—driven by favorable weather—and a potentially record-breaking harvest in India due to expanded planting areas are expected to contribute significantly to the gains. Coarse grains, including maize, are forecast to grow by 3.4%, also reaching record levels. Strong production in Brazil, the EU, and especially the United States—where maize output is expected to rise by 6% due to increased sowing—are key drivers of the growth. Improved weather conditions may also enhance maize yields in southern Africa.
Global rice production is projected to increase by 0.9% to a new high of 551.5 million tonnes, primarily due to rising output in Asia. International rice trade is also expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025, reaching 60.5 million tonnes, with Africa driving demand and exports from India and South America on the rise. Per capita rice consumption is likely to grow globally, with a 2% rise in low-income, food-deficit countries.
Despite this positive outlook, the FAO warns that global food production remains vulnerable to adverse weather, geopolitical tensions, uncertain trade policies, and broader economic challenges. “While agricultural production trends appear solid, drivers that could negatively impact global food security are increasing,” said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero.
The FAO estimates that the global food import bill in 2024 rose by 3.6% to nearly $2.1 trillion. This was largely due to steep increases in import costs for coffee, tea, cocoa, and spices (up 29.3%), fruits and vegetables (up 8.1%), and meat (up 5.6%). In contrast, the cereal import bill dropped by 4.6%.
Trade tensions and policy uncertainty are expected to shape the 2025 food import bill, especially for sensitive categories like tropical beverages and animal products. Impacts will vary by country and product, influenced by reliance on imports and the availability of substitutes. Disruptions from extreme weather and supply chain issues could further raise costs.
The FAO report also highlights the growing threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) to global poultry. In May, Brazil—responsible for nearly 30% of global poultry meat exports—reported its first case of HPAI on a commercial farm. The disease has affected over 173 million chickens in the US since 2022, incurring costs exceeding $1.4 billion by late 2024.
Global egg production reached 91 million tonnes in 2023, or about 1.7 trillion eggs. China led with 38% of output, followed by India and the US. Though only 2.2 million tonnes of eggs are typically traded, volumes nearly doubled in 2024, causing continued price volatility.
The egg-laying sector has been particularly hard-hit due to its longer production cycles, in contrast with broiler chickens raised in more controlled environments.
Related Topics
